AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures ended the pre-Thanksgiving session with most contracts steady to a penny higher. They showed little reaction to last week’s record ethanol production (corn use >111 mbu for the week using a 2.84 gal/bu yield), as huge stocks and large US production are weighing on the market. This morning’s weekly EIA report indicated a record 1.074 million barrels per day of ethanol was produced during the week of November 17. That blew past the previous record of 1.06 million bpd, as ethanol stocks rose 400,000 barrels to 21.897 million barrels. Corn export sales during the week of 11/16 are projected to come in at 0.9 to 1.3 MMT in Friday morning’s Export sales report, based on trade surveys.

Dec 17 Corn closed at $3.45 1/4, up 1/4 cent,

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.57, up 3/4 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.65 1/4, up 3/4 cent

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.73 1/4, up 1 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures finished the Wednesday trade session with most contracts 6 to 8 1/4 cents in the green. December meal was up $6.10/ton, with nearby bean oil down 12 points. Rains in South America this past week missed a chunk of Argentina. A possible La Nina pattern could leave the country much cooler and/or drier than normal early, hurting yields. On Friday, the delayed USDA Export Sales report is expected to show 17/18 soybean sales of 1-1.4 MMT during the week ending 11/16. There are also 0-100,000 MT estimated in 18/19 sales. Soy meal export sales are projected to run 100,000-300,000 MT, with soy oil expected at 0-22,000 MT. The market will be closed on Thursday in observance of Thanksgiving, with Friday showing an early close around noon CST.

Jan 18 Soybeans closed at $9.97 1/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $10.08 1/2, up 8 1/4 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $10.18 1/4, up 8 1/4 cents,

Aug 18 Soybeans closed at $10.26 1/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Dec 17 Soybean Meal closed at $324.40, up $6.10,

Dec 17 Soybean Oil closed at $34.05, down $0.12

Wheat

Wheat futures were mixed on Wednesday, with KC higher and CBT and MPLS lower in the front months. The USDA is expected to indicate 350,000-550,000 MT in all wheat export sales on Friday for the week ending Nov 16. The Bureau of Meteorology in Australia estimates a 70% chance of a La Nina pattern starting in December. That would most likely bring warmer and wetter summers to that country, giving much needed moisture to the area. It would not be a major factor for 2017 wheat, which is already being harvested.

Dec 17 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.22 3/4, down 2 cents,

Dec 17 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.21, up 3/4 cent,

Dec 17 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.26 3/4, down 1/4 cent

Cattle

Live cattle futures posted gains of 72.5 cents to $1.425 on Wednesday, with feeder cattle futures $1.10 to $1.45 higher. The CME feeder cattle index on November 21 was down 10 cents to $156.58. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Wednesday afternoon. Choice was up 38 cents at $209.01, with select boxes a penny lower at $188.64. USDA indicated FI cattle slaughter at 359,000 head through Wednesday, 6,000 larger than a week ago and 11,000 above the same week in 2016. This morning’s FCE auction showed 2 offers of $119 passed on by feedlots, as asks of $120 were passed by packers. There were no sales reported of the 955 head. Cash sales traded $120-$120.50 in the North on Wednesday. This morning’s Cold Storage report indicated frozen beef stocks of 506.931 million pounds, 2.2% larger than September but down 4.9% from last year.

Dec 17 Cattle closed at $119.050, up $1.075,

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $125.475, up $1.425,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $125.950, up $1.150,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $152.725, up $1.100

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $151.150, up $1.325

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $150.925, up $1.250

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the Wednesday trade session with most contracts 45 cents to $2.15 higher. The CME Lean Hog Index for 11/20 was down 42 cents to $64.41. The national base hog average price was 6 cents higher at $56.65 this afternoon. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.11 higher at $81.98 in the Wednesday afternoon report. The weekly USDA AMS hog slaughter report showed 1,378,000 through Wednesday. That is down 16,000 from the previous week but 60,000 more than the same week in 2016. The USDA Cold Storage report this morning showed frozen pork stocks at the end of October totaled 597.295 million pounds. That is a drop of 3.45% from September and 0.29% lower that October 2016. The domestic and export markets continue to absorb larger 2017 production.

Dec 17 Hogs closed at $62.825, up $2.125,

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $69.100, up $2.150

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $73.050, up $1.675

Cotton

Cotton futures settled with 20 to 102 point gains, as nearby Dec was down 16 points following a jump on Tuesday. The US dollar was supportive to those back months, as it was down 674 points. Friday’s Export Sales report is expected to show good sales numbers, though down from last week’s “best of year” 507,700 RB of Upland sales. Online cash cotton sales on Tuesday reported by The Seam were trimmed to 18,290 bales, with prices dropping 132 points to 67.52 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index for November 21 was 145 points higher to 81.50 cents/lb. The biweekly Cotton Ginnings report will be released Friday morning at 11:00 a.m. CST.

Dec 17 Cotton closed at 70.740, down 16 points,

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 71.140, up 100 points

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 72.440, up 101 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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